The OTR TrueFreight Brief is your monthly supply-focused analysis of what is truly happening in the logistics market.
Freight Rates by Equipment
Key takeaway: Dry van surges heading into Q4.
September broke August’s across-the-board pullback, but the recovery was uneven. Dry van climbed from $3.19 to $3.34 per mile, landing within a penny of July’s $3.35, the high-water mark of this cycle, and is up 47.8% from September 2025, the largest annual gain of the three. Flatbed edged up from $3.65 to $3.67, while reefer eased from $3.83 to $3.80.
For brokers, that argues against applying one market adjustment across the book. Recheck van quotes against current lane conditions rather than carrying August’s lower benchmark forward; van is pricing near the top of the cycle, not the middle. Keep flatbed and reefer assumptions separate; the modest flatbed gain does not signal uniform momentum.
Rate Per Mile Regional Volatility
Harvest freight puts the Pacific Northwest on top; Texas and the Gulf stay cool.
Produce season is shaping the regional map, most clearly in the Pacific Northwest. That lines up with the Washington apple and pear harvest. Harvest doesn’t explain the whole map, though. Strength also extends through the Great Lakes and Northeast (Philadelphia +8.6%, Newark +8.2%, Green Bay +8.1%, Boston +7.5% and Detroit +6.7%), while Texas and Gulf markets moved lower. The Southeast is mixed, not uniformly cooling: Raleigh gained 1.8% and Atlanta 1.3%, contrasting with Jacksonville’s 1.7% decline. Southern California posted more modest gains, including Los Angeles at 1.8%.
For brokers, the practical message is to separate origin-market conditions from the national equipment averages when setting bids and reviewing carrier offers. These are 30-day OTR RPM changes across all equipment, so use them to flag lanes for review rather than as a blanket regional price adjustment.
Class 8 Carrier Authority Trends
Key takeaway: Higher rates may be pulling new carriers in, but more authorities isn’t more usable capacity yet.
September’s reported net addition of 2,634 authorities exceeds August’s 2,017 by 617, or 30.6%, and is the largest monthly net gain on our chart since spring 2022. New and reinstated authorities rose 5.1% from August, while reported revocations fell 29.9%.
Higher rates could be what’s drawing new entrants: with equipment rates running 36% to 48% above a year ago, the economics of running under one’s own authority look better than they have in years. But entry is getting harder, not easier. Industry reporting points to tighter identity verification and compliance enforcement making it slower and costlier for new carriers to become usable capacity, even as broker buy rates rise.
FMCSA’s Motus registration system, launched in May, is still settling in, so part of the swing may reflect processing timing rather than new trucks. A larger authority count is not a direct measure of trucks on the road, utilization or capacity available on a particular lane. Brokers should treat this as context for carrier sourcing, vet newly authorized carriers carefully, and validate current availability and pricing lane by lane.
Want real-time insights?
With OTR Select brokers can find verified carriers actively running any lane alongside verified real-time market rates. Backed by millions of real transactions and an exclusive network of tens of thousands of independently verified and continuously monitored carriers, OTR Select gives you access to an untapped pool of reliable capacity.
